as I said Shaun ... death rates are only dropping because victims are fewer and farther between because everyone's been locked down ...
We are certainly seeing a rise in the “normal number of deaths” we have this time of year. Now the thing is most of those deaths are occurring in the elderly who may have also died this year. There are also some young, fit people dying, which is as tragic as the old. But the death rate in the young is nothing like the numbers per thousand that it would have needed to be under Ferguson modelling. The approach of keeping everyone locked up when you need to keep the over 65’s or over 70’s locked up, along with the underlying problems, is looking like it will cause more deaths later on when this is over. The detection of cancer has been halted, this will lead to a major spike later this year along with many other conditions which will not be being detected and treated.
Now, I am also a believer in we don’t know what we don’t know. So it is also possible that the government know more than they are letting on!!
It looks to me that we panicked into the furlough scheme, it was needed to make sure most people stay at home. We have created a new welfare class expecting 80% of wages to do nothing. The chancellor is now making noises about how it will only be extended into July as they didn’t expect the mass shut down of the economy that has been caused by the fear they generated. The social distancing rules will be unenforceable in schools. How will London get to work on the tube?? Trains and aeroplanes pretty much unworkable. Vaccine, probably at least a year away!
The reality is without a recognised treatment they are running out of options before they just say let’s get on with it and see what happens!!
Now this is a virus, it changes every time it mutates as it lacks the ability to reproduce itself exactly. It is a very nasty virus if you have certain underlying issues. If you have those issues, you need to think how you go about your daily life. Life will not be the same for all of us, but for some it will need to be completely different.