Storrsy
Well-known member
Along with everything else. If the stock market crashes and never recovers we'd have bigger things to worry about!When the music stops the bubble pops
Quattromike
Well member-known
Anyone looking at Diageo just now, it's down just now but I'm thinking it'll bounce at some point as it's undervalued
Storrsy
Well-known member
Don't know. Alot of debt going on there plus a decline in drinking habits/cost of I think. I tend to prefer stocks in companies which the world can't really live without.
Still think a global Index fund probably hard to beat and lowest risk
doobin
Well-known member
Silver up to $93 per oz. Not long now till triple figures.
Got lucky last night and picked up Ā£700 worth of .925 coins on eBay for a tenner over spot price- here's hoping the seller keeps his side of the deal!
Got lucky last night and picked up Ā£700 worth of .925 coins on eBay for a tenner over spot price- here's hoping the seller keeps his side of the deal!
J
Jimoz
Well-known member
@doobin listening to a lotus eaters podcast today they were saying the cost of extraction for silver is like 30 dollars. So eventually supply will catch up. They were saying not good for long term holding. Was also saying its a byproduct of other mining like copper. Not entirely sure how accurate these guys are on financial stuff but I enjoy their political take. You know any more about this?
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Jimoz
Well-known member
Just been playing with grok. Gold also has a big difference. Not as much as silver atm. Anyone got a field with some silver underneath?
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pettsy
Well-known member
A Jewellery group based not far from where I live has gone into administration today. Blamed on cost of materials. They also built a ānational jewellery design centreā in the middle of the countryside overlooking a local reservoir. Wonder how they that got through planning, conveniently now up for sale with possible conversion to dwelling how convenient 
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6feetdown
Well-known member
Bet it's owned by a subsidiary companyA Jewellery group based not far from where I live has gone into administration today. Blamed on cost of materials. They also built a ānational jewellery design centreā in the middle of the countryside overlooking a local reservoir. Wonder how they that got through planning, conveniently now up for sale with possible conversion to dwelling how convenient
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DaveDCB
Well-known member
Thatās a real shame, big old skool decent company!A Jewellery group based not far from where I live has gone into administration today. Blamed on cost of materials. They also built a ānational jewellery design centreā in the middle of the countryside overlooking a local reservoir. Wonder how they that got through planning, conveniently now up for sale with possible conversion to dwelling how convenient
Giles
Well-known member
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Jimoz
Well-known member
Spoke to a gold dealer who says he comes across a decent amount of fake soverigns. I assumed fake as in lead painted gold but no he literally meant gold melted down and cast into a soverign mould. Wtf, who would do that?!
S
Stroppymonkey
Well-known member
Iām being thick butā¦
I thought a gold sovereign was valued based upon its weight/purity not as a currency ?
J
Jimoz
Well-known member
From what I gathered it is to replicate rare coins with collectible value above bullion. I was a bit surprised that actually happens.
Grahams
Don't complain - suggest what's better
UK issued gold coins are free from capital gains tax, where as gold bars are not.
J
Jimoz
Well-known member
Good thinking batman. They guy said he has to send any counterfeit for melting.
doobin
Well-known member
Sorry for the late reply, I've been so busy.
Gold to silver price ratio currently is 50:1 ish.
Actual gold to silver ratio (mined/viable reserves) is more like 8:1- and it's constantly consumed, unlike gold which is much more a monetary metal currently. Yes, it can be recycled, and this will become more prevalent as the price rises. But there's a both a cost and a lag effect on this, as well as opening new mines- something like 10 years from planning to production. This is why my shares in Fresnillo are up massively- it's a predominately silver mine (which as you say is rare) in a safe jurisdiction in full production with proven reserves.
I don't forecast supply 'catching up' at all. What will happen is that manufacturers rotate into copper instead of silver. A good play here would be to purchase shares in obviously copper miners, but also comapnies who specialise in protecting the copper against oxidisation once installed. Silver has been preferred for contacts for years as it's so mcuh better than copper in respect of staying clean.
Silver has currently traded steady for a week at around Ā£70/oz. Whilst it's nice to see stability I still think it has a lot further to go in the next few months, and those moves will be volatile.
As regards holding long term- the charts would suggest this is not a good thing, I agree. However, both the sharp spikes were caused by market manipulation. Market manipulation is also what has held it so low for years. The four most dangerous words in investing are 'this time it's different'. But I really believe it is. And anyway- gold is my insurance. Silver is just the lottery ticket for me.
One futher thing- if we do end up with global currencies backed in part by gold (looking more likely by the day), then silvers role as a monetary metal returns by default also. Check out the GSR for the periods before Nixon closed the gold window to see the potential upside here- it's mental.
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doobin
Well-known member
Gold took a big jump overnight. With the price now at around Ā£3600/oz even a couple of percent move is a lot in Ā£ terms.
It's the perfect storm. Trump's threatening. Unrest around the world (Iran's currency has gone to zero, for example- not widely reported). Doller debasement (and they are about to print AGAIN)- it's the only way the dollar can survive except for invading, which they are also doing. This is exactly how WW2 started- Hitler had issued five year bonds to pay for rearment, and as they were about to come due invading Poland and taking their resources was his only option. Speaking of Poland- central banks are still buying gold en mass (and they are basically insensitive to price). Poland actually owns more gold than the ECB!
If you guys want to do some reading, 'Currency Wars' by James Rickards is where you should start. You will see that the 'status quo' of US dollar hegemony since Nixon closed the gold window in the 70's is a minor blip in world history, and it cannot last.
Tech stocks starting to slide. Bitcoin falling. Folk are rotating out into commodities and PMs in particular. Protect yourself guys.
One thing to finish on. Do you know why no fund manager or analyst calls a buble or crash until it's too late? Because they cannot afford to. Being right one year early? Your fund performance tanks vs the others for a year, and your employment record is shot- even though you were right!! So long as you get out when the crash happens, all is forgiven and your clients just put it down to 'the market'.
It's the perfect storm. Trump's threatening. Unrest around the world (Iran's currency has gone to zero, for example- not widely reported). Doller debasement (and they are about to print AGAIN)- it's the only way the dollar can survive except for invading, which they are also doing. This is exactly how WW2 started- Hitler had issued five year bonds to pay for rearment, and as they were about to come due invading Poland and taking their resources was his only option. Speaking of Poland- central banks are still buying gold en mass (and they are basically insensitive to price). Poland actually owns more gold than the ECB!
If you guys want to do some reading, 'Currency Wars' by James Rickards is where you should start. You will see that the 'status quo' of US dollar hegemony since Nixon closed the gold window in the 70's is a minor blip in world history, and it cannot last.
Tech stocks starting to slide. Bitcoin falling. Folk are rotating out into commodities and PMs in particular. Protect yourself guys.
One thing to finish on. Do you know why no fund manager or analyst calls a buble or crash until it's too late? Because they cannot afford to. Being right one year early? Your fund performance tanks vs the others for a year, and your employment record is shot- even though you were right!! So long as you get out when the crash happens, all is forgiven and your clients just put it down to 'the market'.
doobin
Well-known member
I would lean to Graham's explanation. Coin collectors are exceptionally anal, and the mintage numbers and intricate details of the ones with the highest premiums are well known.
Much easier to make a fake to give to a jeweller who will test solely for gold content, as it's being melted down anyhow. With four sovereigns inherited from Granny exceeding your capital gains allowance for the year, there is certainly the incentive there.
I have been seriously considering selling all my gold and buying it back the same day. If you could get that for a premium for a couple of percent from a willing dealer, yes it would hurt. But you'd be crystalising the tax free gains- and CGT exemption is an eaxy one to go for as the price skyrockets and government coffers sit permanently in defecit.
The more I think about it the more it seems like cheap insurance.
Storrsy
Well-known member
All this talk of tariffs/Greenland dropping things at the moment . Exactly the same as what happened last April when he did it the first time. Bloody idiot
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doobin
Well-known member
It's not dropping the gold price, that's for sure!
We are about to see a lot of money rotate out of S&P500/tech stocks back into commodities IMHO. The P/E ratios of AI companies etc are insane. We've seen all these before with the dotcom bubble. Yes, it will change the world. But not every company will be a winner- and winners are hard to pick this early in a cycle.
Think back. Yahoo- where are they now? On the flip side- Amazon. Sure thing, right? No. At their lowest in the crash, they traded for just 11% of the high.
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