Recession?

[Diggerdavey]

We all speculate that a recession is looming, rising costs, shortages etc. What plans do we make for the future? If we have savings do we invest them in equipment or property? Or leave them in the bank devaluing with inflation but available if bargains appear? Thoughts? Anyones experiences from past recessions? Anyone that remembers the 1970s problems that has experience?
Many thanks

 

[DaveDCB]

Like @Regy53 has mentioned in another post, a lot of companies are just hiring plant in over buying, also they can’t get hold of new as easily as previous years.

no one can really predict what a safe bet will be, but having available cash is always going to be a good thing!!

 

[GazCro]

Like @Regy53 has mentioned in another post, a lot of companies are just hiring plant in over buying, also they can’t get hold of new as easily as previous years.

no one can really predict what a safe bet will be, but having available cash is always going to be a good thing!!

New plant is gonna get even worse to get hold of when they can't get certain parts to build them (made in Ukraine).

 

[V8Druid]

We all speculate that a recession is looming, rising costs, shortages etc. What plans do we make for the future? If we have savings do we invest them in equipment or property? Or leave them in the bank devaluing with inflation but available if bargains appear? Thoughts? Anyones experiences from past recessions? Anyone that remembers the 1970s problems that has experience?
Many thanks

been plenty of lean times since then Davey ... 80,s, 90,s, 00,s .... '07-ish was seriously tough ... everything stopped
Owe as little as possible and have as good a buffer as you can to ride it out ...... all about being there for when it gets better ... got a few Tee shirts from back then

 

[DaveDCB]

One man’s loss is another man’s gain…

 

[Diggerdavey]

been plenty of lean times since then Davey ... 80,s, 90,s, 00,s .... '07-ish was seriously tough ... everything stopped
Owe as little as possible and have as good a buffer as you can to ride it out ...... all about being there for when it gets better ... got a few Tee shirts from back then

So the thoughts are that inflation is unlikely to get seriously out of control?

 

[V8Druid]

So the thoughts are that inflation is unlikely to get seriously out of control?

the way it's going ATM it is inevitable .... unless some major interventions/rethinks are had from the top down ......

one saving grace is that the bloody media are so busy/obsessed with other things, they've not started bandying the R word about - yet ...
they're usually the catalyst that stops everyone muddling along ....

'07 was slow but things were still grinding along, until the ba**ards started crying recession and it all ground to a halt ... literally ...
was one of the quietest times I recall TBH, in 30+ odd years trading ...... and the early '90's were bad.

 

[Regy53]

All the signs are there for a recession. I can’t see how we don’t end up in one. I watch Bloomberg every day and a good few say it won’t happen but the confluences are all lining up. Inflation and the war

any rise over 5% inflation has always been followed by a recession, how this works out to be any different i do not know . Apart from perhaps people still have a lot of Money and don’t care .

 

[topkit]

A good sign especially in London and other cities is the sky line, When there is a recession or when we are heading for one there are fewer tower cranes going up on jobs, But in Brighton on thursday I counted at least 14 tower cranes and another just being put up, I have not seen that many in Brighton for many years, I need to start remembering to take my camera with me!

 

[6feetdown]

All the signs are there for a recession. I can’t see how we don’t end up in one. I watch Bloomberg every day and a good few say it won’t happen but the confluences are all lining up. Inflation and the war

any rise over 5% inflation has always been followed by a recession, how this works out to be any different i do not know . Apart from perhaps people still have a lot of Money and don’t care . View attachment 33104


View attachment 33105

I can't see any other way unless something drastically changes

 

[Smiffy]

I can't see any other way unless something drastically changes

Unfortunately considering what's going on with the world drastic changes are an ever present possibility.
I would like to see what is going to happen on sites like hs2

 

[Bob]

I have lived though a few reccesions and few who had got big quick before soon went to the wall highest my morgage went was I think around 15% after ERM removal, jobs got a bit tight in 60s and 70s but that was when Labour was in power and inflation got to 25% I was working at Sizewell and Wilson said why should we build Sizewell they wont vote Labour cancel it and build in heyshem his voting base which they did .But I found something always turned up if you try hard enough and if you would be prepared to do anything even drive a crap machine which I often did

 

[V8Druid]

Unfortunately considering what's going on with the world drastic changes are an ever present possibility.
I would like to see what is going to happen on sites like hs2

well they're going to be quite a bit of plant short soon, judging by the link @Lynchy put up yesterday “All of the plant has been packed up to one side on the site and it looks like it will be on its way somewhere.”
https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2022/03/10/cash-strapped-roadbridge-stops-work-on-hs2/

not paying your contractors in a timely manner inevitably ends badly

 

[Diggerdavey]

So do we think sit in savings and ride out the storm? Rather than invest and hope inflation makes it worth more? Such a time of uncertainty

 

[V8Druid]

So do we think sit in savings and ride out the storm? Rather than invest and hope inflation makes it worth more? Such a time of uncertainty

it's only worth more if there is someone to buy it .... as I said, the goal is to be there when it improves, by whatever means necessary, to take advantage of the upturn 'when' it happens

 

[Diggerdavey]

it's only worth more if there is someone to buy it .... as I said, the goal is to be there when it improves, by whatever means necessary, to take advantage of the upturn 'when' it happens

This is true. It’s the voice of experience I was after.

 

[V8Druid]

I have lived though a few reccesions and few who had got big quick before soon went to the wall highest my morgage went was I think around 15% after ERM removal, jobs got a bit tight in 60s and 70s but that was when Labour was in power and inflation got to 25% I was working at Sizewell and Wilson said why should we build Sizewell they wont vote Labour cancel it and build in heyshem his voting base which they did .But I found something always turned up if you try hard enough and if you would be prepared to do anything even drive a crap machine which I often did

my mortgage rate was 19% in '92 .... but houses weren't the unbelievable tel. numbers they are today .. gave £55k for my first one then ... with £15k down .... and forty to repay .... was tight at those rates

 

[Lancs Lad]

A good sign especially in London and other cities is the sky line, When there is a recession or when we are heading for one there are fewer tower cranes going up on jobs, But in Brighton on thursday I counted at least 14 tower cranes and another just being put up, I have not seen that many in Brighton for many years, I need to start remembering to take my camera with me!

Interesting times, certainly strange as I keep banging in about there's a lot of pent up cash domestically ...feedback from all the trades I speak to daily is they can't cope with demand ..
Call me mad but I'm more concerned about Putin Vs the rest atm ...recession would be a minor worry compared to that.
Ultimately though things can't carry on like this forever

 

[Regy53]

So do we think sit in savings and ride out the storm? Rather than invest and hope inflation makes it worth more? Such a time of uncertainty

Stagflation one issue is the boe or the fed have zero answer to high inflation if they are trying to keep money being spent. Interest rates wont go negative imo and they are already basically zero .

Euro auction was still strong enough to be fair, but it really depends where we are on the cliff. Possible we have a few months to go or maybe we are still climbing. I think i said before we are slowing down spending with a view to seeing how the next few months pan out. We have commitments for underwrites which is no problem and we still bought a few machines Friday but its what we want and nothing less. General random kit I’m not sure on

For you guys owning a asset is a bit easier as there is such a great tax saving if buying new or even used and holding. Buying a 20k asset saves 18% on your tax bill from the start. So thats year one depreciation dealt with and if its a used machine maybe year two also

 

[JD450A]

I've just put in for a Loan.... It will be interesting to see if it's approved or not.....

TBH we are on the brink of a bloody big recession in my opinion!

Edit - Not approved...... we are about to see the s**t go south IMHO!