Coronavirus

[Lynchy]

Scientists call for clarity on claim new Covid-19 variant strain

Carl Heneghan, Professor at Oxford University, expressed scepticism over the 70 per cent figure and explained 'you can't establish a quantifiable number in such a short time frame'.

www.dailymail.co.uk

At least someone has his eye on the ball. Last line of the minutes says this variant was spreading during the lockdown. . That lockdown was effective then!!
The unions now calling for schools not to return in Jan. Gobberment has all ready said 2nd schools to return with mass testing and online. The more you test the more you find. Where has flu and colds gone this year?
This must surely be Brexit ploy to see how Europe gets on when stupid border controls are in place. Perhaps our Gobberment are really playing a blinder!!

Modelling done by Imperial college for the 70%,Ferguson's team again
Don't think the government playing a blinder though,on any front

 

[TiltyShaun]

Modelling done by Imperial college for the 70%,Ferguson's team again
Don't think the government playing a blinder though,on any front

If Ferguson is around it comes back to his flawed modelling. Cr@p in.....bigger cr@p out!!

 

[Bob]

Is not he the prat who was Tony Blairs adviser on Mad Cow diesease who got it so wrong that fifty thousand people would die in days yet like all gov workers are never blamed for any thing never sacked just go into hiding for a few weeks then comes back and do it again he is just bloody usless But is he on the payroll of a pharmaceutical companys like he was with mad cow ?

 

[doobin]

Is not he the prat who was Tony Blairs adviser on Mad Cow diesease who got it so wrong that fifty thousand people would die in days yet like all gov workers are never blamed for any thing never sacked just go into hiding for a few weeks then comes back and do it again he is just bloody usless But is he on the payroll of a pharmaceutical companys like he was with mad cow ?

Foot and mouth.

 

[Bob]

he was also on mad cow as well thats where he got the fifty thousand would die of cjd the human strain in 2002
here is a few of exsamples of his knowledge

[Imperial College epidemiologist Neil] Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .
In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.
In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.
Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay.
So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?

 

[Lynchy]

Yeah bse he modelled 200,000 deaths,was actually around 170,then in 2009 he wanted a lock down for bird flu but no one was daft enough to listen unlike now

 

[Jimoz]

Digress a bit but lad broke his ankle today on site. I called 999 at 11am told them score requested ambulance. Quarter past the ambulance service call me back I ask where they are, sorry got no vehicles in area. We a mile or 2 away from coalville and bardon quarry. They turned up between 45 mins to an hour later. Came from 12 miles away. Nothing to do with priorities just no local vehicles.
Not sure what the score is with the nhs and ambos but it's all f***ed up. More crap service from the National Covid Service.
Tbf the paramedics were sound shared some chocolates with them from the site stash.

 

[Smiffy]

Digress a bit but lad broke his ankle today on site. I called 999 at 11am told them score requested ambulance. Quarter past the ambulance service call me back I ask where they are, sorry got no vehicles in area. We a mile or 2 away from coalville and bardon quarry. They turned up between 45 mins to an hour later. Came from 12 miles away. Nothing to do with priorities just no local vehicles.
Not sure what the score is with the nhs and ambos but it's all f***ed up. More crap service from the National Covid Service.
Tbf the paramedics were sound shared some chocolates with them from the site stash.

Because like all government services they fritter money away then cry out for more
I'm sure the boys police council's and all the others would be in far better condition with a bit a accountancy
I'm not saying it will solve all problems but would certainly help

 

[Lancs Lad]

Digress a bit but lad broke his ankle today on site. I called 999 at 11am told them score requested ambulance. Quarter past the ambulance service call me back I ask where they are, sorry got no vehicles in area. We a mile or 2 away from coalville and bardon quarry. They turned up between 45 mins to an hour later. Came from 12 miles away. Nothing to do with priorities just no local vehicles.
Not sure what the score is with the nhs and ambos but it's all f***ed up. More crap service from the National Covid Service.
Tbf the paramedics were sound shared some chocolates with them from the site stash.

That's crap...that's a long time of it was a nasty break...
Sad state of affairs one wonders what would happen if someone ran these trusts who actually had experience at the sharp end and had to show results...I've nothing but praise for lasses and lads on the front line. Crap pay often as well. Always seem to be a lot of "managers" and bods in "civvies" about whenever I've been in...

 

[Lancs Lad]

Because like all government services they fritter money away then cry out for more
I'm sure the boys police council's and all the others would be in far better condition with a bit a accountancy
I'm not saying it will solve all problems but would certainly help

Look at GMP situation ....nuff said. Utter joke.

 

[T whiting]

 

[V8Druid]

Foot and mouth.

both

 

[Gecko]

Foot and mouth.

Foot in mouth?

 

[Lynchy]

And the bull continues,UK authorise exceptional use of lft test,due to the current mess,.......bought in from????
China!

Covid-19: UK regulator approves lateral flow test for home use despite accuracy concerns

The UK’s regulator has approved the Innova lateral flow covid-19 test for people to self-administer despite warnings from some testing experts that it is inaccurate and may give people a false sense of security. The Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) announced that it...

www.bmj.com

 

[Lynchy]

 

[TiltyShaun]

View attachment 20336

You cynic. His horse sh!t predictions would have come true if we didn’t take all the mitigation methods he requested.

 

[Cyberprog]

You cynic. His horse sh!t predictions would have come true if we didn’t take all the mitigation methods he requested.

I'd have to agree here, quite seriously - his predictions will be worst case also. We've lost nearly 70k people to Covid so far, so while it's a ways away from the 500k predicted, it's still a substantial number.

 

[Grahams]

his predictions will be worst case also.

The trouble with worst case predictions is just that, they are worst case. What we actually need to look at is the probablility curve, what is most likely to happen. If the worst case is also the most likely outcome by all means use those numbers, but if it is a low probablility then use the most likely outcome to formulate policy.
For some reason governments have gone down the route of listening to Twitter and the press who willfully misrepresent or don't understand the numbers rather than taking a proportional response and explaining what they are doing. Follow the science they say - I only wish they would.

 

[Jimoz]

Sorry don't agree we've lost 70k to covid
70k people have died who have returned a positive result of flawed, overcycled PCR test within 28 days of said death. Ie terminal cancer patients, the "ran over by bus after positive test" etc etc

 

[TiltyShaun]

I'd have to agree here, quite seriously - his predictions will be worst case also. We've lost nearly 70k people to Covid so far, so while it's a ways away from the 500k predicted, it's still a substantial number.

As the vast majority of those had underlying medical conditions I doubt covid is the primary cause. What does make my doubt the reality of the numbers is when we will start again at 1. I am not sure but I think our trusted friend Mr Ferguson called those 500K in the first season. Normally we start again on the flu count back at zero end of October/November with a peak at the end of Jan/Feb. I do love the graphs with the dotted lines highlighting when the counting method changed.
Interesting comments by @Grahams regarding worst case forecasting. They should still bear some degree of sense. For me as an uneducated cynic, the death rate early on was clearly in the older population that suffer from flu deaths more than the younger population. It didn’t seem to take long to realise that to reach 500k you would need a noticeable death rate across the whole population age group.
What is considered to be a reasonable margin of error? In this forecasting it seems to be whoever wants to throw the biggest number up in the air. Just seems Ferguson has got that talent to be the World Champion.